⚽ MATCHDAY | Hull City vs Derby County | Tue 24 Feb · 19:45 | MKM Stadium

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MATCHDAY | Hull City vs Derby County

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Tuesday, 24 February · 19:45 UK TIME · MKM Stadium
EFL Championship · Matchday 34

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HULL CITY (5th · 54pts) vs DERBY COUNTY (8th · 48pts)

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Right then. Tuesday night under the lights. Both teams licking their wounds after weekend defeats. Us getting battered 3-1 by QPR at home, Derby getting done 2-0 at Watford. Someone's misery ends tonight. Let's make sure it's theirs.

Four games without a win now. Four. For a team sitting fifth that's not a wobble, that's a full blown crisis of confidence. The QPR result was embarrassing — at home, in front of our own fans, three goals conceded to a team with nothing to play for. If we can't sort ourselves out against Derby tonight then serious questions need asking about whether this squad has the bottle for a playoff push.

THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE

Hull City — P32 · W16 · D6 · L10 · GF 51 · GA 46
Derby County — P33 · W13 · D9 · L11 · GF 47 · GA 41

We've scored more goals, created the most big chances in the entire league (60), and have the better shot accuracy. On paper we're the better side. But football isn't played on paper and our home form tells a different story — six wins, three draws, and SIX defeats at the MKM this season. That's worse than our away record. At home. Let that sink in.

THE HEAD TO HEAD IS GRIM

There's no way to sugarcoat this. We are winless in SIX games against Derby. Lost five of those. Their manager John Eustace has won all three of his away league trips to Hull — clean sheet every single time. They beat us 2-1 at Pride Park back in November and they're unbeaten in eleven midweek league fixtures this season. Seven wins, four draws, five goals conceded in that run.

So basically everything is stacked against us. Perfect. That's exactly when Hull City tend to produce something out of nothing. Or lose 4-0. There's genuinely no middle ground with this lot.

INJURY UPDATE

The treatment room is still busier than the MKM concourse at half time. Still out: Semi Ajayi, Darko Gyabi, Eliot Matazo, Matt Crooks, Toby Collyer, and Mohamed Belloumi. That's half a midfield and a centre back missing.

Yu Hirakawa is a doubt after going off injured against QPR on Saturday. If he's out that's another creative option gone and we're looking at a bench thinner than the pastry on a West Stand pie.

Derby are without Sondre Langas and Max Johnston through hamstring injuries but are otherwise at full strength. Because of course they are.

PROBABLE LINEUPS

Hull City (Jakirović)
Pandur
Coyle — Egan — McNair — Giles
Slater — Hadžiahmetović
Millar — Dowell — Gelhardt
McBurnie

Derby County (Eustace)
Vickers
Elder — Clarke — Sanderson — Ward
Travis — Ozoh
Brewster — Szmodics — Brereton Díaz
Agyemang

KEY BATTLES

McBurnie vs Clarke/Sanderson — Ollie's got 12 goals this season and he's been our most consistent threat. But he needs service and against QPR he was feeding off scraps. If Giles and Millar can get crosses into the box early and often, McBurnie will cause problems. Derby's centre backs are solid but can be dragged around.

Gelhardt vs the entire Derby midfield — Joe scored against QPR and he's been our brightest spark in recent weeks. He drifts between the lines, he's impossible to mark, and on his day he's the best number ten in the Championship. Derby will try to close the space he operates in. If they succeed, we're in trouble.

Szmodics & Brereton Díaz vs our full backs — This is where it gets scary. Derby's front line is rapid and they play on the counter. If we push both full backs forward, which Jakirović loves doing, the spaces behind them are enormous. One ball over the top and Szmodics or Brereton are away. We've been caught too many times this season doing exactly that.

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN

Don't concede first. Simple as that. Derby have never come from behind to win this season — not once. In 33 games, every time they've gone behind they've either drawn or lost. But when THEY score first, their record is frightening. So the first goal is everything tonight.

Start fast. No more of this "we'll grow into the game" nonsense. The last three games we've conceded in the first twenty minutes and spent the rest of the match chasing. Get on the front foot from kick off. Press high, win the ball back early, make the MKM hostile. The crowd is desperate for something to get behind. Give them a reason in the first ten minutes and the atmosphere will do the rest.

Keep it tight at the back. Pandur needs to command his area. Egan and McNair need to win their aerial duels. The full backs need to pick their moments going forward instead of both bombing on simultaneously and leaving acres behind them.

JAKIROVIĆ SAYS:

"We know we haven't been good enough in recent weeks. The players know it, I know it, and the fans know it. There are no excuses. We need a performance and a result tomorrow night and I believe we have the quality to deliver both."

Words are cheap, gaffer. Show us on the pitch.

MATCH PREDICTION

My head says draw. Derby's midweek record is ridiculous and they're well organised under Eustace. But my heart says we nick it. Tuesday night, floodlights on, backs against the wall — this is when Hull City either fold completely or produce something special.

Prediction: Hull City 2-1 Derby County
McBurnie and Gelhardt to score. We concede because of course we do. But we win because sometimes football rewards the stupid and the brave and tonight I'm being both.

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THREAD RULES

This is the LIVE MATCHDAY thread — post your reactions, celebrations, rants and everything in between as the game unfolds
Keep it passionate but keep it clean
Player ratings and proper analysis go in the POST-MATCH thread after full time
Anyone saying "it's only Derby" clearly hasn't looked at our record against them

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COME ON YOU TIGERS


Floodlights are on. Anlaby Road is filling up. Let's go.​