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THE FINAL DAY. HERE WE GO.
Right, let's get everything in one place because there's a lot going on this Saturday and I don't want anyone going into it confused about what we need.
THE SITUATION
We're seventh on 70 points. Wrexham are sixth on 70 points. They have a goal difference of plus four, we have plus three. So they're above us right now purely on goal difference. Derby are eighth on 69 points but their goal difference is plus nine, which is the scary bit.
Three clubs. One playoff spot. Everything decided in 90 minutes on Saturday.
OUR MATCH
Hull City vs Norwich City. MKM Stadium. Kick off 3pm.
Norwich can only finish ninth so they've got nothing to play for in terms of promotion or relegation. That's the good news. The bad news is they've been arguably the form team in the Championship over the last six months and they absolutely battered us when we went there earlier in the season. They're not coming here to roll over.
THE OTHER MATCHES
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough at the Racecourse Ground. Boro are still chasing second place and automatic promotion if results go their way. They'll be going full throttle.
Derby vs Sheffield United at Pride Park. Sheffield United are mid table with nothing to play for. On paper that's Derby's easiest fixture of the three.
WHAT DO WE ACTUALLY NEED
Win and we're in the playoffs regardless of what Wrexham and Derby do.
Draw and we need Wrexham to drop points.
Lose and we're almost certainly out unless Wrexham somehow lose heavily and our goal difference swings massively in our favour.
Full scenarios are in the other thread but the simple version is: we need to win this football match.
THE FORM
Two wins in our last eleven. I'm not going to dress it up because everyone knows it's been awful. Charlton away last week was hard to watch. But form goes out the window on final day when every team is fighting for something and the atmosphere is mental. Cling to that if you need to.
THE MANAGER
Jakirović has to pick a team that actually wants to go forward and win the game. We can't sit back and invite Norwich pressure hoping for a scrappy winner. Against a side with nothing to lose that approach gets punished every time.
ONE LAST THING
Whatever your feelings about this season, whatever's gone wrong, Saturday is a chance to make it mean something. Sell out the MKM, get behind the lads from the first whistle and let's give ourselves the best possible chance.
Right I've gone through every combination so you don't have to. Bookmarking this one for Saturday afternoon.
CURRENT STANDINGS
Wrexham: 6th, 70 points, goal difference +4
Hull City: 7th, 70 points, goal difference +3
Derby County: 8th, 69 points, goal difference +9
All three play simultaneously at 3pm Saturday.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
Hull City vs Norwich City
Derby vs Sheffield United
IF HULL WIN
We finish with 73 points. Derby can only reach 72. Wrexham can only reach 73.
If Wrexham also win they finish on 73 points too. Their goal difference is plus four, ours would depend on the scoreline but we start on plus three. A one goal win keeps us behind them on goal difference. We need to win by at least two goals more than Wrexham win by to overtake them on goal difference.
But here's what matters: even if Wrexham win, we still go into the playoffs in sixth or fifth place. A Hull win guarantees us a playoff spot. Full stop.
IF HULL DRAW
We finish on 71 points. Derby can still reach 72 if they win, which puts them above us regardless. So a draw means we need Derby to drop points.
We also need Wrexham to not win. If Wrexham draw they stay on 71 with us and we compare goal difference, theirs is better right now so we'd need to have closed that gap during the draw.
A draw is basically relying on other results. It's a bad position to be in.
IF HULL LOSE
We stay on 70 points. Both Wrexham and Derby go above us if they win, which they're both favourites to do. We'd need both of them to drop points and even then the goal difference calculations get very complicated very fast.
A loss almost certainly ends it. I'm not going to pretend otherwise.
THE GOAL DIFFERENCE SPECIFICS
Right now the gap between us and Wrexham on goal difference is one goal. Hull plus three, Wrexham plus four.
If we win 1-0 and Wrexham win 1-0 we stay one behind them. Still in playoffs, just sixth instead of fifth.
If we win 2-0 and Wrexham win 1-0 we overtake them on goal difference and go fifth.
The difference between fifth and sixth in the playoffs matters because fifth hosts the second leg of the semi final. Not the end of the world either way, but worth knowing.
Derby's goal difference is plus nine. Even if they win heavily on Saturday they can only reach 72 points. As long as we win, Derby cannot catch us on points.
THE CLEAN VERSION
Win: we're in the playoffs. Simple.
Draw: we need results to go our way elsewhere.
Lose: almost certainly out.
Right, let's get everything in one place because there's a lot going on this Saturday and I don't want anyone going into it confused about what we need.
THE SITUATION
We're seventh on 70 points. Wrexham are sixth on 70 points. They have a goal difference of plus four, we have plus three. So they're above us right now purely on goal difference. Derby are eighth on 69 points but their goal difference is plus nine, which is the scary bit.
Three clubs. One playoff spot. Everything decided in 90 minutes on Saturday.
OUR MATCH
Hull City vs Norwich City. MKM Stadium. Kick off 3pm.
Norwich can only finish ninth so they've got nothing to play for in terms of promotion or relegation. That's the good news. The bad news is they've been arguably the form team in the Championship over the last six months and they absolutely battered us when we went there earlier in the season. They're not coming here to roll over.
THE OTHER MATCHES
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough at the Racecourse Ground. Boro are still chasing second place and automatic promotion if results go their way. They'll be going full throttle.
Derby vs Sheffield United at Pride Park. Sheffield United are mid table with nothing to play for. On paper that's Derby's easiest fixture of the three.
WHAT DO WE ACTUALLY NEED
Win and we're in the playoffs regardless of what Wrexham and Derby do.
Draw and we need Wrexham to drop points.
Lose and we're almost certainly out unless Wrexham somehow lose heavily and our goal difference swings massively in our favour.
Full scenarios are in the other thread but the simple version is: we need to win this football match.
THE FORM
Two wins in our last eleven. I'm not going to dress it up because everyone knows it's been awful. Charlton away last week was hard to watch. But form goes out the window on final day when every team is fighting for something and the atmosphere is mental. Cling to that if you need to.
THE MANAGER
Jakirović has to pick a team that actually wants to go forward and win the game. We can't sit back and invite Norwich pressure hoping for a scrappy winner. Against a side with nothing to lose that approach gets punished every time.
ONE LAST THING
Whatever your feelings about this season, whatever's gone wrong, Saturday is a chance to make it mean something. Sell out the MKM, get behind the lads from the first whistle and let's give ourselves the best possible chance.
Right I've gone through every combination so you don't have to. Bookmarking this one for Saturday afternoon.
CURRENT STANDINGS
Wrexham: 6th, 70 points, goal difference +4
Hull City: 7th, 70 points, goal difference +3
Derby County: 8th, 69 points, goal difference +9
All three play simultaneously at 3pm Saturday.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
Hull City vs Norwich City
Derby vs Sheffield United
IF HULL WIN
We finish with 73 points. Derby can only reach 72. Wrexham can only reach 73.
If Wrexham also win they finish on 73 points too. Their goal difference is plus four, ours would depend on the scoreline but we start on plus three. A one goal win keeps us behind them on goal difference. We need to win by at least two goals more than Wrexham win by to overtake them on goal difference.
But here's what matters: even if Wrexham win, we still go into the playoffs in sixth or fifth place. A Hull win guarantees us a playoff spot. Full stop.
IF HULL DRAW
We finish on 71 points. Derby can still reach 72 if they win, which puts them above us regardless. So a draw means we need Derby to drop points.
We also need Wrexham to not win. If Wrexham draw they stay on 71 with us and we compare goal difference, theirs is better right now so we'd need to have closed that gap during the draw.
A draw is basically relying on other results. It's a bad position to be in.
IF HULL LOSE
We stay on 70 points. Both Wrexham and Derby go above us if they win, which they're both favourites to do. We'd need both of them to drop points and even then the goal difference calculations get very complicated very fast.
A loss almost certainly ends it. I'm not going to pretend otherwise.
THE GOAL DIFFERENCE SPECIFICS
Right now the gap between us and Wrexham on goal difference is one goal. Hull plus three, Wrexham plus four.
If we win 1-0 and Wrexham win 1-0 we stay one behind them. Still in playoffs, just sixth instead of fifth.
If we win 2-0 and Wrexham win 1-0 we overtake them on goal difference and go fifth.
The difference between fifth and sixth in the playoffs matters because fifth hosts the second leg of the semi final. Not the end of the world either way, but worth knowing.
Derby's goal difference is plus nine. Even if they win heavily on Saturday they can only reach 72 points. As long as we win, Derby cannot catch us on points.
THE CLEAN VERSION
Win: we're in the playoffs. Simple.
Draw: we need results to go our way elsewhere.
Lose: almost certainly out.
